A Theory of Change (ToC) shows how a desired change is expected, with all of the possible pathways leading to change, and why you think they lead to change.
When planning an initiative, theory can guide decisions about design and set up hypotheses to test over time.
ToCs explain how and why a program is expected to work. They make the connection between programmers’ efforts and the outcomes and impact they hope to achieve, like improved health, enhanced education, economic empowerment, or quality of life.
Programming ToCs involve a broad analysis of the system that needs transformation, identifying and involving key actors, initial program design and strategic choices, and critical assumptions. They form the basis for adaptive management and monitoring, evaluation and learning during implementation.
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ToCs focus on challenging the dominant power relations that stand in the way of things like improved health, enhanced education, economic empowerment, or quality of life.
Advocacy ToCs are typically focused on social movements and augmenting marginalized communities’ voices, reframing debates, shifting social norms, or improving policy. Progress is likely to be achieved through incremental and looping patterns rather than through a single linear change process. Many movements spend years building power and capacity, before achieving any concrete reforms or policies.
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